Revamping Results-Based Financing

Evidence, experience and priorities for the next generation of RBFs for energy access

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Ryan Kilpatrick
Director of Strategic Communications and Advocacy, GOGLA
Sarah Malm GOGLA
Sarah Malm
Executive Director, GOGLA
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Published on 23 March 2026

Results-Based Financing (RBF) has helped make energy access a reality for millions. Yet governments, investors and off-grid solar companies have also encountered implementation challenges, including payment delays and potential market distortions. With RBFs embedded as a core delivery mechanism under Mission 300 and other large-scale access initiatives, it is essential to apply these lessons to improve RBF design and implementation in ways that deliver durable access, resilient markets and sustained investment.

Why RBF Design Matters

Results-Based Financing (RBF) has become an important approach for accelerating energy access. Programmes supporting the deployment of solar home systems, productive-use equipment, mini-grids and clean cooking solutions have enabled millions of households, farms and enterprises to access clean, affordable energy, often for the first time.

Today, more than 30 national or multi-country off-grid solar RBF programmes are in operation or design, supported by governments, donors and implementing partners. As RBFs will continue to be critical to Mission 300 and other major energy access initiatives, it is increasingly important to examine both their potential and the implications for programme design, implementation and coordination.

GOGLA recently engaged several of our member companies that are actively participating in RBF programmes across multiple markets and technologies. After more than a decade of implementation, these companies have accumulated a significant body of practical experience.

Drawing on their experience, our previous industry consultations, and ongoing engagement with governments, funders and implementers, GOGLA is consolidating evidence to help inform the next generation of programme design.

Feedback suggests that design choices matter enormously. In some cases, RBF schemes were considered ‘too hot’, with subsidy levels or structures that distort markets, exhaust funds prematurely or undermine long-term sustainability. In others, programmes were deemed ‘too cold’, with rigid rules, delayed payments or misaligned incentives that fail to reach the most underserved customers or place undue risk on companies delivering access.

Challenges Observed in Recent RBF Programmes

Conversations with GOGLA member companies, governments, funders and national associations highlighted several recurring challenges across RBF programmes. While programme contexts differ, the examples below illustrate common design and implementation issues observed in multiple markets. 

High subsidy levels can create market and commercial sustainability risks

In some programmes, high subsidy levels have driven rapid uptake but exhausted funds before full access targets were reached. In one recent programme, subsidies for solar home systems were set at around 50% of retail price. Uptake was rapid and targets were exceeded early, but funds were depleted before the full potential market was reached. Moreover, rapid scale-up under high subsidy regimes can lead companies to expand operations and staffing ahead of sustainable demand, creating commercial risks when programmes end or funding is exhausted.

RBF incentives focused on sales may not support sustained energy access

Where payments are triggered primarily at the point of sale, long-term access outcomes may be weakened. In several PAYGo RBF programmes, a significant share of payments were disbursed shortly after sale verification, with limited linkage to verified continued use or repayment performance. Other RBFs lack clear requirements for after-sales support. While these designs increased short-term connections, they also created risks related to customer drop-off and the loss of sustained energy access.

Delayed payments create working capital strain

Late disbursements and limited transparency around verification and payment timelines place significant working capital pressure on companies. When firms sell products to customers at subsidised prices but receive RBF payments months later, they are effectively required to pre-finance the subsidy. In several recent RBF programmes across Africa, companies reported extended delays between verified sales and subsidy disbursement, in some cases reaching up to 18 months. Extended receivable periods constrain working capital, slow sales expansion and disproportionately affect smaller or locally owned firms, ultimately weakening programme effectiveness and investor confidence.

Rigid programme structures can limit participation and market responsiveness

Inflexible programme design can restrict participation or limit companies’ ability to respond to changing market conditions. In some programmes, eligibility has been restricted to a defined set of companies or programme rules have limited the ability to adjust pricing or product offerings in response to currency movements, cost changes or evolving demand. These constraints can slow connections, discourage participation from newer or smaller firms and increase financial risk for companies operating in volatile markets. 

Limited transparency around subsidy availability and allocation can create operational uncertainty for companies

Where allocation periods are short or visibility on remaining subsidy funds is limited, companies may face uncertainty about whether future sales will qualify for subsidies. In several programmes, delayed notification when subsidy budgets were exhausted meant companies continued selling products at discounted prices only to discover later that funds had already been depleted, creating financial losses and operational disruption. Limited forward visibility can also make it difficult for companies to plan inventory and financing needs, potentially leading to excess stock and inefficient use of working capital when subsidy programmes end unexpectedly.

RBF frameworks designed around a single business model may exclude emerging approaches

Many RBF programmes have been structured primarily around PAYGo, lease-to-own or asset ownership models. While these approaches have delivered strong results, they may not always accommodate models such as cash sales, energy-as-a-service, battery rental, micro-asset financing or community-level solutions. As companies experiment with alternative approaches to improve affordability for the poorest households, RBF frameworks should evolve to ensure that different delivery models can participate on a level playing field.

RBFs designed in isolation may fail to address broader market barriers

RBFs can be less effective when implemented without addressing complementary policy and financing constraints such as foreign exchange volatility, VAT and import duties, or access to working capital. Some programmes have demonstrated the value of more integrated approaches. In one case, a demand-side RBF was paired with a credit line that lent in US dollars but could be repaid in local currency, helping the programme remain resilient during a period of sharp currency depreciation. Where such facilities are introduced, aligning them with existing debt providers and financing mechanisms can help mobilise additional capital and strengthen market development rather than crowding out private lenders.

In parallel, some off-grid energy investors are examining how subsidy structures affect market sustainability, investment confidence and the mobilisation of private capital at scale. We are engaging with these efforts to ensure that industry perspectives contribute constructively to these discussions.

Lessons from Industry Experience

GOGLA member companies shared implementation experience and identified practical improvements to subsidy design and delivery, including approaches such as differentiated subsidies, demand-responsive pricing models, the use of multipliers for specific policy objectives and alternative incentive structures. While the industry is not yet at a single consensus view, inputs from our members and other consultations suggest growing alignment around several broad principles.

Calibrate subsidies to balance affordability with market sustainability

Analysis from operators suggests that relatively modest, well-calibrated subsidies for Tier 1 systems (often cited by companies in the range of USD 20–25) can materially improve affordability for low-income households by helping overcome initial entry barriers, while preserving incentives for repayment, service quality and long-term system performance.

Very high subsidy levels may accelerate early uptake but can undermine long-term market sustainability. Based on experience shared by companies participating in RBF programmes, subsidies in the range of approximately 20–30% of end-user cost are, in many contexts, sufficient to address affordability constraints, with companies cautioning against higher levels. Lower subsidy levels can allow available funding to reach more customers while reducing the risk of market distortion.

To respond to changing market conditions, some companies have also expressed interest in exploring dynamic pricing approaches, where subsidy levels adjust at predefined intervals based on programme performance (e.g., connection rates relative to targets). The appropriate level and structure of subsidies will vary depending on market maturity, demand potential and programme objectives.

Incentivise sustained access, not just initial sales

Under Mozambique’s Mais Energia programme, part of the PAYGo RBF payment is disbursed after an initial post-sale period (e.g., around 90 days) and linked to early repayment performance. This reflects efforts by some programmes to align subsidy payments with sustained customer use and repayment behaviour. While such mechanisms may strengthen accountability, experience with these designs is still emerging and their effectiveness across markets remains to be assessed.
Some RBF designs that support access to off-grid solar using consumer financing such as PAYGo are exploring mechanisms that incentivise sustained access rather than rewarding initial sales alone. These may include linking a portion of subsidy payments to indicators such as verified continued use or early repayment performance.

Ensure transparency and predictability in programme design and implementation

In RBF programmes where companies have clear visibility of available subsidy funds and maintain regular communication with fund managers, they are better able to anticipate market changes and plan operations responsibly. In several recent programmes, digital verification platforms integrated with company customer management and payment systems have helped reduce verification times and administrative costs, improving transparency and confidence in programme processes.

Clear disbursement timelines, regular communications with companies before and during the RBF programme, real-time visibility of remaining subsidy funds and predictable programme rules help reduce operational risk for participating companies and enable responsible planning and investment. Establishing independent verification agents at programme launch, alongside defined service-level expectations for verification and disbursement, can shorten payment cycles and reduce administrative burden.

Align incentives with durable system performance and long-term access

Some RBF programmes have introduced requirements related to quality-verified (QV) products, warranties or multi-year service obligations to help ensure systems remain functional and customers continue receiving reliable energy access. These approaches reflect growing policy attention to durability and long-term customer outcomes.

Governments and customers expect off-grid energy solutions to deliver reliable service over many years. This expectation is shared by companies and investors seeking long-term customer relationships and sustainable markets. RBF design should therefore consider how RBF qualification criteria and incentives support system quality, after-sales service and long-term access, not only initial deployment.

Use payment multipliers selectively to support additional policy objectives

Some RBF programmes have used payment multipliers or bonus payments to incentivise companies to achieve additional objectives, such as reaching harder-to-serve communities or targeting specific customer segments. These “top-up” payments are applied on top of standard subsidies, which are typically designed to support efficient delivery of baseline access targets.

Payment multipliers or bonus structures can be used to incentivise outcomes beyond baseline access targets, such as geographic targeting or inclusion goals. Engaging participating companies and other stakeholders when defining these objectives and calibrating any additional payments can help ensure that such mechanisms are well-calibrated for the local context and do not create unintended market distortions.

What we are Doing Next

As the global off-grid solar association, GOGLA is continuing to work with our member companies, governments and partners to inform the next generation of RBF programmes. We are engaging with the World Bank Group and other partners as new guidance and RBF programme designs are developed.

In parallel, GOGLA is facilitating practical dialogue on specific design questions with our members and via the End User Subsidy Lab. Our intention is to constructively contribute to RBF planning initiatives, particularly via our work with the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and at the Global Off-Grid Solar Forum and Expo in October 2026.

GOGLA has published targeted Guidance for PAYGo RBFs: Strengthening how we measure and incentivise sustained energy access, a tool that presents a menu of practical options for adopting industry metrics. It explores how repayment and ownership metrics can be used across the RBF lifecycle to strengthen sustainability and long-term access, while managing operational risk. In addition, the next phase of GOGLA’s Keeping the Lights On study will examine how subsidies and RBFs affect affordability in PAYGo markets, including how companies adjust pricing strategies as programmes evolve.

These insights are already informing ongoing discussions with governments, funders and implementers as new RBF programmes are designed and existing ones are refined.

Guiding principles for future RBF design

As new RBF programmes are developed, we encourage governments, the World Bank Group, donors and implementing partners to consider the following guiding principles:

  1. Embed sustainability of access at the core of RBF design, supporting long-term customer access, viable delivery companies and resilient markets beyond the life of the subsidy.
  2. Ground subsidy levels in affordability analysis and market evidence, with clear caps, review points and credible exit pathways.
  3. Align incentives with long-term access, including system functionality, maintenance and responsible consumer financing, rather than sales alone.
  4. Ensure predictable programme funding, allocation transparency and timely payments so companies are not required to pre-finance public subsidies for extended periods.
  5. Design RBFs as part of a broader policy toolkit, alongside fiscal reforms, foreign exchange risk solutions and access to appropriate finance.
  6. Ensure RBF frameworks can accommodate diverse business models, including energy-as-a-service, micro-asset financing, battery rental and other models that can demonstrably improve affordability and long-term access.
  7. Engage industry early and continuously, drawing on operational experience across different markets, technologies and business models.

GOGLA will continue working with governments, funders, implementers and member companies to help ensure RBF programmes deliver durable energy access, resilient markets and sustained investment.

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