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South Africa is at an inflection point on energy access. Around 1.6 million households remain without electricity, largely in remote and underserved areas where grid extension is difficult and costly. Reaching these households requires a more flexible, targeted approach.
The government is incorporating off-grid solar and other distributed renewable energy (DRE) solutions into its Integrated National Electrification Programme (INEP) as part of South Africa’s pathway to universal access by 2030.
For the off-grid solar and DRE sectors, this is a clear market signal. For policymakers and financiers, it sets out a framework that can unlock faster and more cost-effective delivery.
To inform this shift and clarify its implications, GOGLA convened public and private sector leaders on the sidelines of the Africa Energy Indaba in Cape Town. In collaboration with South Africa’s solar energy association, SAPVIA, alongside Odyssey Energy Solutions, Sun King, and RF Catalytic Capital, the discussion brought together representatives from South Africa’s Department of Electricity and Energy (DEE), the African Development Bank’s Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (SEFA), and the Global Energy Alliance.
The exchange helped surface areas of alignment on policy direction, financing priorities, and delivery models. These insights point to what will be required to translate South Africa’s electrification strategy into an investable and scalable market for distributed renewable energy.
South Africa’s Deputy Minister of Electricity & Energy, Samantha Graham-Maré, confirmed that non-grid solutions will form part of INEP going forward, with structured deployment alongside grid expansion. The approach is guided by three priorities: maintaining programme coherence, ensuring legal and fiscal sustainability, and strengthening coordination with municipalities.
Inclusion within INEP creates a more predictable environment for the private sector. It also clarifies the next phase of work: translating technical plans into implementable policy and financing frameworks within the next 12 months to stay on track for 2030.
The underlying analysis is already in place. Priority geographies have been mapped, and appropriate technologies identified, including stand-alone solar and mini-grids. The remaining gap is about execution at scale.
“The Department is advancing efforts to integrate non-grid solutions alongside traditional grid extension — the focus is on smarter connections, including distributed solar, mini-grids, and hybrid solutions for remote and low-density areas.”
— Deputy Minister Samantha Graham-Maré, Department of Electricity & Energy, Republic of South Africa
What this means:
South Africa’s shift aligns with wider continental experience. Across Africa, more than 600 million people still lack reliable electricity. Under Mission 300, off-grid solar and DRE solutions are expected to deliver up to 45 percent of new connections by 2030. GOGLA’s analysis of Mission 300 National Energy Compacts highlights this potential.
Evidence on effective deployment models is accumulating quickly. Notwithstanding potential improvements observed by GOGLA members, results-based financing (RBF) mechanisms have proven effective in markets like Nigeria, Zambia, and Uganda.
GOGLA’s research highlights a critical insight: the largest barrier is affordability at the point of first access. Only around 1 in 5 unelectrified households can afford the monthly payment for a Tier 1 solar energy kit. Models that spread cost over time, including pay-as-you-go (PAYGo) and Energy-as-a-Service, are therefore central to reaching scale.
“Off-grid solar is the most affordable and fastest-to-deploy solution for households without electricity. Customers do pay when payment structures are right, standalone solar already costs less than the alternatives: candles, kerosene, petrol, or diesel.”
— Sarah Malm, Executive Director, GOGLA
What this means:
Policy direction alone will not deliver connections at the required speed. The structure of financing will be decisive.
Blended finance, catalytic capital, and RBFs are already demonstrating how public and private capital can work together. Instruments such as first-loss capital and junior equity can reduce risk for developers and unlock participation at scale.
No single instrument will be sufficient. Effective programmes will combine multiple layers of financing, aligned with different stages of project development and risk.
“The risks that typically kill off-grid deals — currency, political, and regulatory — tend to fall disproportionately on small developers. What the market needs are first-loss instruments and junior equity that let these developers scale. Results-based financing has proven it works across the continent.”
— Andrew Herscowitz, CEO, Mission 300 Accelerator, RF Catalytic Capital
The African Development Bank’s SEFA brings complementary depth, providing the concessional and blended capital that can mobilize private investment at scale, including through green mini-grid support and first-loss mechanisms that absorb early-stage risk.
“We haven’t found the silver bullet for commercial viability of off-grid electrification. And I don’t think there is going to be one, frankly. I think it’s going to be a lattice of a number of interventions that we need to layer one on top of the other.”
— Benjamin Curnier, Principal Green Mini-Grids Officer, SEFA, African Development Bank
What this means:
South Africa’s solar industry is ready. Companies operating across Africa have demonstrated the ability to scale rapidly when enabling conditions are in place.
Supply chains, technical expertise, and deployment models are well established. What’s needed is a consistent framework that allows companies to participate in national programmes with confidence: standardised contracts, clear technical standards, and targeted risk mitigation tools.
“Success is not zero-sum. When a village is electrified, it unlocks an entire local economy. The solar industry has the capacity; what we need now is the enabling framework to deploy it.”
— Adv. Mtho Xulu, Chairperson, SAPVIA
Large-scale operators such as GOGLA member Sun King demonstrate what is achievable when policy, financing, and delivery models align. The company is scaling rapidly across multiple markets and has committed to deploying 50 million additional systems by 2030, including around one million in South Africa. Their experience provides a clear indication of the scale and speed that a well-designed non-grid component within INEP could unlock, while also highlighting the importance of enabling frameworks that support sustained deployment.
“Our goal is simple: make solar affordable for every community, ensure no one is left behind in the energy transition, and end energy poverty in Africa permanently. With the right policy environment and subsidy support, we can and will deliver.”
— Dr. Wale Aboyade, Global Vice President of Public Policy and Government Relations, Sun King
As policy, financing, and industry capacity align, the remaining constraint is coordination. Connecting capital to projects, aligning developers with public programmes, and ensuring decisions are guided by reliable data will determine whether delivery can scale within the 12-month policy window.
“The technology exists, the financing models are proven, and the policy direction is becoming clearer. What we need now is coordination: connecting the capital to the projects, and the projects to the communities that need them most.”
— Caren Robb, Vice President of Finance, Odyssey Energy Solutions
South Africa’s 2030 universal access target is achievable. Roughly 75 to 80 percent of unconnected households are in rural areas where grid extension is not cost-effective, pointing directly to stand-alone solar and mini-grids as core solutions.
The foundations are now in place. Government direction is clear, industry capacity is established, and financing models are increasingly well defined. The next phase will depend on execution, supported by coherent policy frameworks, investable programme design, and strong coordination across stakeholders.
GOGLA’s role is to support this transition by bringing evidence into decision-making, convening the actors who need to align, and strengthening the link between policy ambition and market delivery. South Africa represents an important opportunity to demonstrate how integrated electrification strategies can be implemented at scale, with relevance for markets across the continent. GOGLA and our members are committed to getting it right.
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