655 million people still live without electricity. Off-grid solar reaches around 449 million people, and as the sector works towards universal access under Mission 300 and national electrification plans, governments and funders are making choices about how the remaining households will be served. Those choices will shape the market our members operate in for the next decade.

This consultation document sets out a draft framework for matching delivery models to the conditions households face. It maps households by ability to pay and by how easy they are to reach, and describes three overlapping bands: commercial, partially commercial and concessional. The bands overlap, and households move across them as incomes rise and infrastructure improves. More than one delivery model can be viable in the same place.

The document covers:

• • Where commercial sales, results-based financing (RBF) and concessional service models each fit, and where they compete
  • Deep RBF and service concessions as two credible routes to the last mile, and the evidence needed to judge which is most appropriate
  • Pay-per-use battery rental as a commercial energy-as-a-service option in dense settlements
  • The sub-Tier-1 market: 50% of the 10.2 million units sold in 2025 were lanterns, and policy focused on Tier 1 concessions risks displacing a large commercial market.