Off-grid solar now reaches 380 million people and is scaling faster than any other energy technology. A growing body of research shows its economic impact is far larger than what currently gets counted. Four organisations argue that the sector must agree on what to measure, build the evidence together, and deliver unified and useful impact data to governments. Otherwise, the technology reaching people fastest will remain the one whose economic value policymakers can see least clearly.
In Zambia, a man sells internet access to his neighbours. He does it from forty Starlink routers lashed to sticks on his roof, powered by the same solar kit that powers his family’s home. In Nigeria, a seamstress traded an expensive diesel generator for a solar system that now keeps her workshop running and lets her meet her customers’ deadlines. Are these simply just two more household connections, as currently measured by standard energy access tracking data? Or, are they examples of how much socioeconomic impact off-grid solar actually has?
The gap between the impact off-grid solar is creating and what gets counted is the untold story of the sector. Today, more than 380 million people have access to solar home systems (SHS) to power their homes and businesses, and SHS adoption in Africa has grown fourfold over the last decade. What none of those numbers tell you is what rapid solar adoption means for the continent’s economies, or whether the people deciding how to invest in energy access can see and account for it.
Multiple technologies, from standalone SHS through to minigrids, mesh grids and centralised grids, now sit at the disposal of African governments pursuing energy access goals, and aligning around the World Bank’s and African Development Bank’s Mission 300; reaching 300 million Africans by 2030.
Of these, standalone solar is scaling the fastest.
Today’s impact evidence takes us some distance to understanding what that means: families using solar kits no longer need expensive alternatives to power their businesses and extend their working day. Since 2010, savings and new income unlocked by off-grid solar has reached over $28 billion, while the industry has created over 200,000 local jobs. With each of these jobs unlocking several more in the broader economy.
Yet, this aggregate impact remains nebulous and hard to picture compared to larger grid-scale projects, the economic contribution of solar-powered informal enterprises largely undercounted and the spillover impacts on productivity – from children having longer to study to a reduction in disease and accidents — go unrecorded.
Two things need to happen together: the sector needs to better capture the full economic impact of off-grid solar, and it needs to put that evidence in front of the governments and decision-makers choosing where to invest in energy access.
One new area of exploration is mapping the benefits of home-businesses. Most customer data records a customer as either a household or an enterprise, a distinction that erases home-based businesses; a cornerstone of African rural economies, where more than eight in ten workers are informally employed. The Zambian router operator above is a case in point. Much of solar’s economic impact comes from nano-enterprises like this, or from customers simply working longer hours at home.
Another is in standardising what gets counted. Productive use is the obvious example: the term means something different from one piece of research to the next. Some definitions turn on the hardware, counting systems above a given wattage. Some turn on the appliance, so a water pump, a mill or a fridge qualifies, where lighting and ICT equipment does not. Some turn on where the kit sits, making a shop roof productive and an identical house roof not. Meanwhile, health, education and connectivity are too often filed as co-benefits rather than growth drivers. A day not lost to illness is a day’s earnings. A child studying after dark earns more as an adult. A charged phone is mobile money and market prices within reach.
Alongside better measurement is the need to use evidence to answer the most critical questions. Governments exploring how to make budget allocation decisions must weigh different energy options against one another, and against investment in other areas such as roads and schools. What’s missing is how impact gains aggregate into GDP, tax revenue and employment. Cost per connection is the easiest number to count but is only a fraction of the story. New indicators and insights must also feed into tools that governments and public funders can use to more clearly inform strategic decisions. Multiyear data is also needed to show how usage evolves and continues to drive change. Africa’s solar sector has a unique source that can already be leveraged to paint a vivid picture: most SHS are sold through one- to three-year consumer financing rather than as a simple hardware sale. The pattern of payment histories, completion rates and follow-on purchases that companies already capture can help chart usage, while touch points with customers can be used to gather insights on system impacts over time. Linking operational data sets to impact outcomes shaped by large-N surveys and deeper research can help track changes in how solar kits are used and how they deliver economic growth.
Several organisations are placing a firm focus on better capturing and profiling the impact of decentralised solar. Genesis Analytics has developed new survey instruments with Sun King and LeapFrog to capture home-business income and employment impacts directly; GOGLA is updating its off-grid solar impact metrics to incorporate new data and developing cost-benefit tools to inform fiscal policy; and SEforALL is mapping impact methodologies across electrification technologies. The World Bank, governments and Mission 300 partners meanwhile are expanding their capacity to understand, interrogate and share off-grid solar evidence.
Capturing the true impact of off-grid solar means agreeing definitions, coordinating methodologies, and building the evidence base together rather than in parallel. Making that impact count means going further still: getting the evidence to the governments, funders and decision-makers in a form they can actually use. Government ministers, industry leaders, and data experts will come together in Kigali at the end of October for the Global Off-Grid Solar Forum and Expo – a key moment on the Mission 300 calendar. The impact of off-grid solar is on the agenda, as is how to track it and unlock it, we hope to see many of you there.
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